Excellent job Meredith. Imagine if VY was online, but no let's make money burn oil, making power, and selling our power, while polluting our beautiful NE.
Thank you Meredith for documenting that needed electricity imports may fail to materialize. In the example you show, the New England ISO is exporting power to Canada during an interval of high internal demand.
I agree that if Vermont Yankee and Pilgrim nuclear plants were still running, electricity prices would be lower. Less oil would be burned.
California also pushed for the needless cessation of generation at the end of January, 2012 of the 2,254 MW San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS.) Fossil energy interests likely lobbied behind the scenes for the harmful closures of Vermont Yankee, Pilgrim, and SONGS in order to boost the profitability of their firms.
Don’t distort the record by trying to claim nuclear closures were due to fossil fuel industry. It’s very clear it is because of anti nuclear sentiment in the wake of Fukushima and because there was no willingness by the utility to pay a premium for nuclear energy. Ridiculous. What the fossil fuel energy has wanted - more gas pipeline in the NE which would replace oil fired generation - has been consistently blocked by state opposition
Nope. Russia wanted Gerrmany's nuclear power plants shut down so they would have geopolitical leverage via Russian natural gas with their plan to forcibly annex Ukraine.
The political Left wanted Western nuclear power plants shut down as an extension of the "Ban the Bomb" campaigns going back more than four decades. Of course the BRICS nations are exempted from this campaign. Witness the strong growth of nuclear power generation in the People's Republic of China.
China now has much more leverage in a blockade of Taiwan to forcibly annex it. Doubtless there was Chinese influence in the campaign to shut down Taiwan's nuclear power.
There is a long record of fossil interests pushing for nuclear plant closures to protect their franchises. Rod Adams has chronicled this fossil industry tactic going back more than four decades. Examples include the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island running full-page advertisements in the New York Times opposing the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant. https://atomicinsights.com/smoking-gun/
The existence of competing geopolitical and economic interest is not the proximate cause for why any given nuclear power plants are shutdown. That is garbage reasoning and completely unfounded. There is clear evidence that the reasons were economic combined with state policy. Provide proof for your claims or revert to the conspiracy sphere
"There is a long record of fossil interests pushing for nuclear plant closures to protect their franchises. Rod Adams has chronicled this fossil industry tactic going back more than four decades. Examples include the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island running full-page advertisements in the New York Times opposing the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant. https://atomicinsights.com/smoking-gun/ "
isn't the import situation similar in Europe, where numerous nations rely on imports from neighbors but when times get tough, they cut them off? maybe it's not an ideal way to run a grid.
Thank you, Andy. The "feature" of depending on imports that fail to materialize is a flaw in many grids that have too much wind and solar. Region-wide challenges to grid reliability such as winter polar vortices or summer heat storms reduce the probability there will be adequate electric power when it is really needed. Think of the mid-February 2021 Winter Storm Uri in Texas which caused the deaths of about 1,000 Texans with inadequate heat. Think of the late summer heat storms in 2020 and 2022 in California. Think of the mid-day Iberian Peninsula blackout on Monday, April 28, 2025 that killed at least eleven. But don't worry. Only the "little people" will be harmed. Economic elites have their propane-powered generators to insure they have reliable electricity.
Unfortunately the reaction of the citizens who are in control of the state legislatures (and energy policy) will be, “this proves that New England needs more renewables and the sooner the better!”, and they will double down on Net Zero. To our peril.
M. I read your book several years ago and it made a huge impression on my views regarding the fragility of our grid and the irresponsible mandates made by our politicians. Cuomo is rightly blamed for his destructive policies and now my Governor, Abigail Spanburger just re-signed us up for RGGI. And she won’t in large part in her message of affordability. I hope she sees what’s going on and has a change of heart.
My understanding is that Quebec has encouraged use of resistance-type electric heating so their consumption should greatly increase with very low temperatures. Perhaps it would be interesting to look at the same graphs, but for Quebec.
I found a time series of hourly electricity demand for Quebec for 2019 thru 2023. The highest demand was ~42.5 GW @ 7PM on 2/3/23. Average temperature that day in Montreal was about -20F. Typical summertime demand was about 18GW
I wonder by how much (if at all) freezing of small streams and rivers that feed reservoirs might reduce hydro generation in Canada. Also, I understand that many Canadians use electricity to heat their homes, contributing to increased demand in winter.
Great post, thanks Meredith. Can I ask if there are scheduled commercial flows on the line? for example in the EU you have capacity auctions wondering if there are forward capacity sold on the line and what allowances are for divergence to this?
Hi Meridith -- a point of fact -- both of those shutdown nuke plants can be retrofitted-repowered in the future with multiples racks of POD MOD electric power supply's / mounted against the interior walls of Turbine Hall(s) / allowing for not using the heat and steam sources, i.e., the reactor(s); steam sources; turbines and generators / connecting the new, clean, electricity through the existing control room(s) to the connected grid: -- if the control rooms and grid connections are still there.
Excellent job Meredith. Imagine if VY was online, but no let's make money burn oil, making power, and selling our power, while polluting our beautiful NE.
God bless you girl.
I live a mile from Harvard - my utilities bill broke $1k and that was BEFORE the storm.
I miss those nuclear plants too.
Thank you Meredith for documenting that needed electricity imports may fail to materialize. In the example you show, the New England ISO is exporting power to Canada during an interval of high internal demand.
I agree that if Vermont Yankee and Pilgrim nuclear plants were still running, electricity prices would be lower. Less oil would be burned.
California has also recently experienced periods when needed imports failed to materialize when there was region-wide elevated electricity demand.
This is a feature, not a bug of the ISO-RTO-RO model, as you indicate in your 2020 book, Shorting the Grid - The Hidden Fragility of Our Electric Grid. https://www.amazon.com/Shorting-Grid-Hidden-Fragility-Electric-ebook/dp/B08KZ51SDP
California also pushed for the needless cessation of generation at the end of January, 2012 of the 2,254 MW San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS.) Fossil energy interests likely lobbied behind the scenes for the harmful closures of Vermont Yankee, Pilgrim, and SONGS in order to boost the profitability of their firms.
Don’t distort the record by trying to claim nuclear closures were due to fossil fuel industry. It’s very clear it is because of anti nuclear sentiment in the wake of Fukushima and because there was no willingness by the utility to pay a premium for nuclear energy. Ridiculous. What the fossil fuel energy has wanted - more gas pipeline in the NE which would replace oil fired generation - has been consistently blocked by state opposition
Nope. Russia wanted Gerrmany's nuclear power plants shut down so they would have geopolitical leverage via Russian natural gas with their plan to forcibly annex Ukraine.
The political Left wanted Western nuclear power plants shut down as an extension of the "Ban the Bomb" campaigns going back more than four decades. Of course the BRICS nations are exempted from this campaign. Witness the strong growth of nuclear power generation in the People's Republic of China.
China now has much more leverage in a blockade of Taiwan to forcibly annex it. Doubtless there was Chinese influence in the campaign to shut down Taiwan's nuclear power.
There is a long record of fossil interests pushing for nuclear plant closures to protect their franchises. Rod Adams has chronicled this fossil industry tactic going back more than four decades. Examples include the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island running full-page advertisements in the New York Times opposing the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant. https://atomicinsights.com/smoking-gun/
The existence of competing geopolitical and economic interest is not the proximate cause for why any given nuclear power plants are shutdown. That is garbage reasoning and completely unfounded. There is clear evidence that the reasons were economic combined with state policy. Provide proof for your claims or revert to the conspiracy sphere
Gene gave you a reply!
"There is a long record of fossil interests pushing for nuclear plant closures to protect their franchises. Rod Adams has chronicled this fossil industry tactic going back more than four decades. Examples include the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island running full-page advertisements in the New York Times opposing the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant. https://atomicinsights.com/smoking-gun/ "
isn't the import situation similar in Europe, where numerous nations rely on imports from neighbors but when times get tough, they cut them off? maybe it's not an ideal way to run a grid.
Thank you, Andy. The "feature" of depending on imports that fail to materialize is a flaw in many grids that have too much wind and solar. Region-wide challenges to grid reliability such as winter polar vortices or summer heat storms reduce the probability there will be adequate electric power when it is really needed. Think of the mid-February 2021 Winter Storm Uri in Texas which caused the deaths of about 1,000 Texans with inadequate heat. Think of the late summer heat storms in 2020 and 2022 in California. Think of the mid-day Iberian Peninsula blackout on Monday, April 28, 2025 that killed at least eleven. But don't worry. Only the "little people" will be harmed. Economic elites have their propane-powered generators to insure they have reliable electricity.
NE and NY have been counting on Quebec exports. NY is building an expensive transmission line to import electricity from Quebec. So what happens now?
Unfortunately the reaction of the citizens who are in control of the state legislatures (and energy policy) will be, “this proves that New England needs more renewables and the sooner the better!”, and they will double down on Net Zero. To our peril.
Great article and analysis. Here is a web page about the event with three more graphs: https://wvwelectric.com/iso_ne/graphs/iso_external_interfaces_graph_January_2026_Canada_notes.html
M. I read your book several years ago and it made a huge impression on my views regarding the fragility of our grid and the irresponsible mandates made by our politicians. Cuomo is rightly blamed for his destructive policies and now my Governor, Abigail Spanburger just re-signed us up for RGGI. And she won’t in large part in her message of affordability. I hope she sees what’s going on and has a change of heart.
alas, she will never see I fear, nor my governor, Sherrill
My understanding is that Quebec has encouraged use of resistance-type electric heating so their consumption should greatly increase with very low temperatures. Perhaps it would be interesting to look at the same graphs, but for Quebec.
Most I see for Quebec is https://www.hydroquebec.com/transenergie/en/
They spike at about 40,000 MW on a frigid morning.
I found a time series of hourly electricity demand for Quebec for 2019 thru 2023. The highest demand was ~42.5 GW @ 7PM on 2/3/23. Average temperature that day in Montreal was about -20F. Typical summertime demand was about 18GW
Thanks. Here's some graphs for ISO New England around then.
https://wvwelectric.com/iso_ne/graphs/iso_fuel_gen_five_min_hist_graph_Feb_3_and_4_2023_cold_spell.html
ISO NE exporting briefly to Canada on Feb. 4, 2023 also.
I wonder by how much (if at all) freezing of small streams and rivers that feed reservoirs might reduce hydro generation in Canada. Also, I understand that many Canadians use electricity to heat their homes, contributing to increased demand in winter.
Hey Meredith
This looks like it needs correcting
Quebec is exporting to Quebec right now.
Great post, thanks Meredith. Can I ask if there are scheduled commercial flows on the line? for example in the EU you have capacity auctions wondering if there are forward capacity sold on the line and what allowances are for divergence to this?
Huh, it’s almost like someone could have seen this coming? 😉
Quebec should have refurbished Gentilly II fifteen years ago. That would give them another 650 MW of reliable generation.
As a side track - being from Quechee, I hope you too left VT for warmer, cheaper environs
Hi Meridith -- a point of fact -- both of those shutdown nuke plants can be retrofitted-repowered in the future with multiples racks of POD MOD electric power supply's / mounted against the interior walls of Turbine Hall(s) / allowing for not using the heat and steam sources, i.e., the reactor(s); steam sources; turbines and generators / connecting the new, clean, electricity through the existing control room(s) to the connected grid: -- if the control rooms and grid connections are still there.
New England and New York sometimes export to Québec in cold weather. But this situation was PARTICULARLY DRAMATIC.
Very thought provoking. Thanks for the flag.
Excellent insight Meredith.