I read your book. I read your Substack posts. I’m always amazed at the complexity of the policy grid. It all seems beyond human understanding. How can anything so complicated be expected work well? As an engineer, “Keep it simple stupid” always had great appeal. Obviously, the designers of the policy grad never, ever heard of KISS.
Given how fundamental energy is to *everything* (not least modern economies), the legislative bodies (not to mention political discourse) might be vastly improved by the election of a few engineers!
It's complex because there are so many parasites, like lawyers, bureaucrats, special interest groups that need to make money, while the politicians need the votes for all the programs that the parasites "need".
Unfortunately, keeping the lights on with constantly-changing loads, using many different types of generation with different operating characteristics is a complex process even before you get to policy. It the failure of people proposing simple solutions to understand the complexity of the grid operations that is the problem
In 2020 one of the weather dependent energy loving climate alarmists proposed a taxpayer purchase & retirement of coal fired power stations. The proposal stipulated the revenue would come from "subsidies" paid to the coal plants.
The theory was that this was supposed to accelerate the rollout of wind & solar.
The fine print explained (without irony) that the supposed subsidies were in fact the capacity payments. There was no discussion of why intermittent power systems were generally ineligible for the "subsidies" that guarantee delivery on demand.
Excellent analysis, Meredith! Capacity payments address the key structural issue in RTO and ISO areas - the lack of electric power grid reliability. Subsidy-seekers that promote unreliable electric power such as solar and wind have resorted to lawsuits to attempt to prevent capacity markets. That California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has reluctantly adopted Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) in its reliability metrics. ELCC values for solar and wind are negligible, as they should be.
Buckle your seatbelts, indeed! This change has the potential to show the flawed economic premise behind RTOs and ISOs. (I believe the real purpose of ISOs and RTOs is to enrich a few economic elites that designed the opaque system regulating a necessity of life, electricity. As you note in your book, Shorting the Grid, states that retained the vertically integrated electric utility model with strong state regulation have reliable, lower-priced electric power.)
Actually, I helped to found Californians for Green Nuclear Power in 2013.. In addition to our informative website, we produce the relevant GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/
“There are also problems with connecting new renewable plants. So renewable capacity is not growing as fast as people had hoped.”
We don’t power our homes with capacity we power it with kilowatt hours. “1 MW of capacity in 2009 produced 4,312 MWh of electricity. In 2020, 1 MW of capacity generated 3,094 MWh, a decline of 28.3 percent. It’s as clear as can be: investment in renewables shrinks the economy’s productive potential.”
Much worse - until the taxpayer-funded subsidy seekers are corralled. California is where this problem is becoming more apparent, with likely billions in annual payments to curtail solar and wind generation.
Power pricing in PJM is definitely NOT my detailed area of expertise, but it seems pretty obvious that as capacity retires, as long as capacity (especially firm capacity) is required, its value in the marketplace is going to rise, simple supply and demand. VRE type promoters like to pretend that replacing firm capacity is easy, but reality shows it isnt.
There is a simple solution. New Hampshire, one of the 6 States in New England, USA, has a Co-op Law, whereby an Electric Utility can generate its own power. Let's assume that they plan to generate 25 % of NH's power or 400 MW's/hr for a total of 10,000 MW's/day.
They could install 4 Sodium cooled reactors rated for about 300 MW's thermal which can provide enough steam to generate about 150 MW's e each. Sodium cooled reactors have been SUCCESSFULLY operationally tested for a combined 74 YEARS. This extra capacity allows for contingencies, same as the Capacity Market.
When electrical demand is low, like during the night and most days (demand is usually highest between 3:30 - 9:30 PM.) , the generators turned down and the excess steam used to make more potable water, grow more food, support plasma gasification/FT process to convert trash into usable products, heat/cool buildings and many other industrial processes.
This will allow LOCAL control, control by members, not the parasites/bureaucrats, labor unions, politicians. If people want to raise their cost of electricity to support parasites they can do that.
(if you want me to hammer you for being stupid, tell us how Molten Salt/Sodium cooled reactors generate waste and can have a melt-down and how renewables are better)
I am pro-nuclear. I don't think you can hammer me about that subject.
However, I don't speculate about very new types of energy on the grid. Whether it's fossil with carbon capture, new types of nuclear, or fusion, I always say "show me" before I recommend it.
William Fortune, president of Industrial Consultants Inc, worked for 16 years as facilities engineer for the Department of Defense (Navy) concerning the overhaul and repair of nuclear submarines. As facilities engineer, he was responsible for the design, construction & contract specifications for purchase of many various pieces of equipment, systems and facilities that were used by the shipyard to overhaul submarines. Systems included electrical power distribution (Submarine power-440 Volts ) up to 800 amps, controls using programmable logic controllers, 600 psi steam, chilled water, 4500 psi hydraulics , 6000 psi ultra dry air compressors, oil and refrigerants reprocessing, chemical cleaning facilities, sandblasting and painting systems. Mr. Fortune introduced the idea of using a storage/retrieval stacker cranes for Naval Shipyards and specified the one built in the Machine Shop, Bldg. 300 at the PNSY.
He was also project engineer for the more technical parts of the design and construction of the Navy’s largest and most advanced machine shop east of the Mississippi. One of the major accomplishments was the design of the machine shop’s pump test facility. The test facility allowed the Navy to test all hydraulic, lube oil and water pumps that are used on nuclear submarines that can be overhauled at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. When the construction contractor had difficulty building parts of the project Mr. Fortune quit the Shipyard & became the Contractor’s Quality Control (CQC) Inspector and also contracted to build parts of the facilities. As CQC he was involved in the quality control for the construction of such items as concrete structures, cranes, pipe welding, sewer systems, steel construction, control systems, and the entire test facilities that are used in the testing of various submarine components.
Pryor to becoming a full time DoD employee, Mr. Fortune worked one summer vacation as a Circle T test director at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. His duties included directing the operational/certification testing of the Emergency Diesel Generator & the Feedwater Pumps & System for a submarine.
While still employed by the Shipyard, Fortune was asked to spend several weeks at Subic Bay Navy Base specifying test equipment for the testing of submarine systems under the Sub-safe program. During his time at Subic Bay he discovered that several workers were not doing their job testing the ship’s systems. On the last day of duty, at a meeting with the Base Commander, Mr. Fortune said that the Ship’s Skipper & Base Commander needed to order all members of the Test Group to be on board during sea trials. The ship completed Sea Trials successfully.
Some other highlights while at the Shipyard: Built, with the help of Maintenance mechanics, an oil reclaiming facility using abandoned equipment. The oil was returned to “new” specifications after it was used to flush dirt & water out of ships hydraulic systems.
Another facility from abandoned equipment was automated to process/reclaim trichlorotrifluoroethane (used as another flushing/cleaning fluid). The cleaned fluid was pumped into a specially designed semitrailer/tanker that could be taken to the ship & the dirty fluid returned to the other ½ of the tanker instead of using 55 gallon steel drums.
Mr. Fortune uncovered fraud during an inspection of those 6000 psi, Ultra-dry air compressors mentioned above. The manufacturer used some components that were rated for only 3000 psi. & tried to show evidence that the manufacture of those components had certified them for 6000 psi, which they had not. He claimed that other Shipyards accepted his equipment & had connections “high up”. I said “you are dealing with Portsmouth Naval Shipyard now”. The Navy inspectors in Virginia requested that PNSY accept the compressors & “fix” them. I told them that they would not be allowed in the Shipyard & they were to default the vender & I was “going up the Chain of Command” all the way to the President of the U.S. if necessary. I soon got a call from some Department Head saying the “buck stops here”, the vender will be defaulted & ordered to pay back all Progress Payments, which he did and he went out of business.
I loved my job for the Navy. But I was a threat to “higher ups” so they wouldn’t promote me, so I quit & became a contractor (CQC mentioned above). A new Department Head was so scared he called the Shipyard to see where I was, because he had bad dreams about me & thought I was on the same airplane with him (I was Chief Union Steward & in his department). All the pastries his wife made to bribe the Navy Brass over the years didn’t help. He was caught “spilling the beans about a Union dispute” to some media people, which got him terminated. He was the first, but not the last. During a system flush of the newly constructed hydraulics test system in the new Machine Shop (mentioned above) someone smelled ammonia that we were using. The Fire Dept arrived, followed by dozens of other people including the Shop Head & Fire Chief. I told the Chief that “this area is under Contractor control & I’m the Safety Officer & “I’m ordering you to remove all those people that don’t have SCBA to leave the area, including yourself”. The Shop Head got me kicked off the Yard for a month, but when they had to shut down the job because no other engineer could be found to replace me, I returned. The Shop Head was furious, because I could park my car below his office in the Security Area (no private cars allowed, usually) & had air conditioning in my portable office. They said he pounded his fists on the table at the Shipyard Commanders Office trying to get me removed again. Two-3 years after the Machine Shop was finished there was a huge oil spill. The workers had pushed oil & water from the Oil Pump Test Area into the Fire Sprinkler Water collection tank, instead of the Oil/Water Collection Tank, a system I designed. The Shop Head said “Fortune did it”. An investigation showed that I was long gone from the Shipyard for some time & it was his fault. He immediately got transferred to another Yard.
In the mid 1970’s Mr. Fortune built a house at 10 Rollingwood, Eliot, Maine, doing all the plumbing, well pump/water system, electrical, heating system, sewer system, concrete basement floor & finish work.
Industrial Consultants Inc was formed in 1984 for the primary purpose of doing design/build construction projects; many were done for the Department of Defense. From underground utilities and railroad tracks to high voltage power distribution systems (up to 5000 volts) there were many and various project in between.
In 2000 W. Fortune & Co was established to do design/build geothermal heat pump systems and other oil and gas fired HVAC systems. In 2012 NH Clean Energy was formed with other engineers to design a facility that would take landfill materials, gasify them, and convert them to synthetic products such as paraffin & synthetic F-T Diesel. The plant would also produce about 35 MW's of electricity and enough steam to heat the city of Concord, NH/replace Concord Steam.
Other: Founder of Fathers United For Equal Justice (NH, 1971); 2 yr. term, Chairman, ASME, Northern Chapter; Chief Steward, International Federation of Professional & Technical Engineers (IFPTE), Local 4 (while DoD employee at the Shipyard). Conducted approx. 15 court cases including one Jury Trial, wining about 90 % of them.
Nuclear reactors (solid fuel, very high pressure, 3 % fuel efficient, water cooled) were never designed to be used by civilians on land ! They were designed to be used by the US Navy in a submarine.
The first Molten Salt reactor was designed by Oak Ridge Nat. Lab, headed by Alvin Weinberg. It took them only 3 YEARS ! They PROVED the technology by operationally testing it until Democrats from California defunded the project so the money would go to CA. Alvil testified before another moron in Congress from CA that the nuclear reactors they designed for the Navy were unsafe ! The moron got Alvin fired.
Another reason we have nuclear reactors is because the NRC wanted to spend their entire life "studying". (Congress recently made law that says they only have a few months and can't charge billions of $$$).
THERE IS NO SPECULATION ! Again, the Sodium/Liquid Metal cooled reactors have been operational for a combined 74 YEARS.
The fact that ppl in the US are still believing Helen Caldicott, a school teacher, that wind and solar are the answer, shows just how brain dead people are !
I know about Weinberg and the success of the molten salt reactor at Oak Ridge. I still consider them speculative because they have not been put into service making electricity. At least, not in this country. They are used in Russia.
Yes, nuclear is the answer. But it takes so long to get them built, because of all the regulations and permitting obstacles, that there will be a lot of pain and suffering and economic slowdown before the solution is realized and built out. Sad...
"NUCLEAR" was NEVER the answer ! read the history/my comments above ! Only fools build Nuclear reactors, mostly because no one ever had enough money to "pay off" the bureaucrats at the NRC.
This doesn't work in a de-regulated power market like PJM, would need above market PPAs to get these built (not to mention need to get lenders comfortable with the design, an unlikely scenario). Integrated utilities could do it if there is political will, but after the Vogtle bondoogle that is unlikely. You need a federal impetus.
U comments shows U have no clue !!! BTW, I said we need another Co-op, like the one we have in NH. Congress just gave the "impetus", but still can't have Gen IV because there are way too many parasites making everything too expensive. China likely the Worlds leader in energy & the next Superpower !
The economics of nuclear power plants look a lot better if we look at the long run, like the possibility of 100 yrs of reliable lifetime with relatively low maintenance and low fuel cost. Coal and gas are cheaper, but nuclear plants are emission free, which should make it possible for bi-partisan support.
It's only "not economical" in the US and other Western Nations, because of the lawyers, labor unions, bureaucrats and millions of other parasites that want all the money. Many have misled the public by saying that Molten Salt reactors are Nuclear that can have a melt-down, can explode, produce lots of waste, produce bomb making materials. They mislead people because they want to keep getting $$$ for "research". According to Yale, the only solution is fusion; they need to keep the "free" money flowing for their "research".
Wonderful summary for all. You have put it into words, for the first time in my searching to understand this type of thing even remotely, that I can understand. Bravo!
A couple of things to keep in mind about this latest PJM auction. One is that PJM allows states(or more particularly individual load serving entities) to opt out of there capacity auction process. Typically this process has been used by those states/utilities in PJM that remained vertically integrated and fully regulated. So AEP in West Virginia, Indiana, and Michigan or Dominion in Virginia and North Carolina for example. In this last auction however Dominion has not been able to build enough generation to meet it's fully bundled load due to demand growth in it's territory and thus has had to "opt in" to the capacity market. I believe this decision is a multi-year one as well under the rules and thus Dominion will be participating in the next PJM auction come this December(the PJM auction process has been heavily delayed due to various litigation at FERC and thus is basically way behind schedule).
So what does this all mean? Well I have been trying to convince folks in other parts of PJM that have large amounts of generation compared to local load(think Northern Illinois with all of it's nuclear plants) that perhaps they should consider using this same opt out provision with little interest to date(although some Illinois state legislators in the past have been interested in leaving the capacity markets) perhaps however, this huge increase in capacity prices across PJM including Illinois(which has plenty of capacity locally) will change people's minds. One challenge is because ComEd is no longer a vertically integrated utility it would have to sign bilateral agreements with all of key generators in it's service area(most of the nuclear ones in particular are owned by ComEd former sister company Constellation Energy) however, this system was already put in place once between 1997 and 2005 after deregulation was imposed in Illinois(1997) and the state and ComEd joining PJM in 2005.
In the short term Illinois will be okay because some of the nuclear plants(Dresden, Byron, and Braidwood) have cost sharing provisions as part of the agreement to keep the plants open back in 2022 that rebate back to Illinois ratepayers any market revenues over a certain amount. However, this agreement under the CEJA law doesn't last forever and doesn't cover LaSalle(the most profitable nuclear plant in Illinois) and doesn't cover Quad Cities in the same way either. So Illinois ratepayers at the end of the day will still end up paying more just perhaps not as much more as others in PJM.
I'm thrilled to live in the BGE zone. Our glorious messianic governor announced several billion of state funds will go towards the green mirage through 2027 including building a new transmission grid across the far northern part of the state to carry planned wind farms' output. Since our state is run by luddite Dems, it's business as usual - claim an enemy is at our door, posit utopian ideas to address it, spend $$$, and pretend the unintended (but obvious) consequences were always expected.
It seems to me that the non-engineer bureaucrats in charge of the system simply don't appreciate that electricity isn't a commodity, rather a service. In other words, one cannot put a price on a kWh of energy nor a kW of power. Rather it's a matter of establishing a value for each kWh and each kW. Capacity payments is an imperfect means of pricing a dispatchable kW as most certainly is attempting to put a stable market price on a kWh. All of the complexities in the current market system can be placed at the feet of treating electricity as a commodity.
It seems to me that there must be a recognition that dispatchability requires a higher value; that the short-term market treatment of a kWh needs to be supplanted by a longer-term market mechanism which values low incremental kWh production cost and accepting a higher cost of the infrastructure required to deliver those kWhs. Perhaps jurisdictions could start by allowing auctions which promise delivery of an pre-established number of kWhs in, for example, a week, rather than the current 15 minute auction price? Would something like that reduce the helter-skelter nature of current electricity energy markets?
I think it’s important for lawmakers, Wholesale market rulemakers, regulators, and the interested public to understand the cost of capacity relative to the cost of energy on the grid.
One of the obstacles to doing so is that people tend to assume that price is somehow a reflection of cost. Unfortunately that is untrue. Another obstacle is using different metrics for capacity. (MW-days) than for energy (MWHs).
As a ratepayer advocate and independent economics enthusiast, I have a somewhat unique perspective on this matter. I believe one fair way to approach the issue is to take the view that levelized fixed costs are capacity costs, and levelized variable costs are energy costs. The DOE EIA Has been projecting costs in these categories in their AEO For more than 15 years. One thing these reports show accurately (but fail to state explicitly) is that levelized fixed costs vary with capacity factor, while levelized variable costs do not. And regional transmission organization, annual state of the market reports show that energy is overpaid and capacity underpaid relative to these cost categories.
I read your book. I read your Substack posts. I’m always amazed at the complexity of the policy grid. It all seems beyond human understanding. How can anything so complicated be expected work well? As an engineer, “Keep it simple stupid” always had great appeal. Obviously, the designers of the policy grad never, ever heard of KISS.
I don't mind that none of our legislators are engineers. I DO mind that so few of them take engineering constraints seriously!
I don't know. My legislator assured me he was going to force those recalcitrant engineers to slow their trains down. He seems to take speed seriously.
In other words, he doesn't even know what an engineer is!
Very funny. Painfully funny.
Alas, it might even be true....
Given how fundamental energy is to *everything* (not least modern economies), the legislative bodies (not to mention political discourse) might be vastly improved by the election of a few engineers!
It's complex because there are so many parasites, like lawyers, bureaucrats, special interest groups that need to make money, while the politicians need the votes for all the programs that the parasites "need".
Unfortunately, keeping the lights on with constantly-changing loads, using many different types of generation with different operating characteristics is a complex process even before you get to policy. It the failure of people proposing simple solutions to understand the complexity of the grid operations that is the problem
In 2020 one of the weather dependent energy loving climate alarmists proposed a taxpayer purchase & retirement of coal fired power stations. The proposal stipulated the revenue would come from "subsidies" paid to the coal plants.
The theory was that this was supposed to accelerate the rollout of wind & solar.
The fine print explained (without irony) that the supposed subsidies were in fact the capacity payments. There was no discussion of why intermittent power systems were generally ineligible for the "subsidies" that guarantee delivery on demand.
Excellent analysis, Meredith! Capacity payments address the key structural issue in RTO and ISO areas - the lack of electric power grid reliability. Subsidy-seekers that promote unreliable electric power such as solar and wind have resorted to lawsuits to attempt to prevent capacity markets. That California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has reluctantly adopted Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) in its reliability metrics. ELCC values for solar and wind are negligible, as they should be.
Buckle your seatbelts, indeed! This change has the potential to show the flawed economic premise behind RTOs and ISOs. (I believe the real purpose of ISOs and RTOs is to enrich a few economic elites that designed the opaque system regulating a necessity of life, electricity. As you note in your book, Shorting the Grid, states that retained the vertically integrated electric utility model with strong state regulation have reliable, lower-priced electric power.)
Thank you!
And thank you for all that you have done to save Diablo Canyon.
(Gene is the founder of Californians for Green Nuclear Power.)
https://cgnp.org
Actually, I helped to found Californians for Green Nuclear Power in 2013.. In addition to our informative website, we produce the relevant GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/
“There are also problems with connecting new renewable plants. So renewable capacity is not growing as fast as people had hoped.”
We don’t power our homes with capacity we power it with kilowatt hours. “1 MW of capacity in 2009 produced 4,312 MWh of electricity. In 2020, 1 MW of capacity generated 3,094 MWh, a decline of 28.3 percent. It’s as clear as can be: investment in renewables shrinks the economy’s productive potential.”
Things are going to get much worse.
I have a chapter in my book, Shorting the Grid: "Selling KWh is a Losing Game."
Things are going to get worse.....
Much worse - until the taxpayer-funded subsidy seekers are corralled. California is where this problem is becoming more apparent, with likely billions in annual payments to curtail solar and wind generation.
Power pricing in PJM is definitely NOT my detailed area of expertise, but it seems pretty obvious that as capacity retires, as long as capacity (especially firm capacity) is required, its value in the marketplace is going to rise, simple supply and demand. VRE type promoters like to pretend that replacing firm capacity is easy, but reality shows it isnt.
Thank you for the great work!
Thank you for the note!
And the CEO of Scottish Power says “Electrification is Unstoppable”……unless you do not have the electrical power. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-01/-electrification-is-unstoppable-a-utility-ceo-on-building-a-better-grid
The policy vs physical grid concept is one of the most eloquent and important things to learn about the grid imo
Thank you very much!
There is a simple solution. New Hampshire, one of the 6 States in New England, USA, has a Co-op Law, whereby an Electric Utility can generate its own power. Let's assume that they plan to generate 25 % of NH's power or 400 MW's/hr for a total of 10,000 MW's/day.
They could install 4 Sodium cooled reactors rated for about 300 MW's thermal which can provide enough steam to generate about 150 MW's e each. Sodium cooled reactors have been SUCCESSFULLY operationally tested for a combined 74 YEARS. This extra capacity allows for contingencies, same as the Capacity Market.
When electrical demand is low, like during the night and most days (demand is usually highest between 3:30 - 9:30 PM.) , the generators turned down and the excess steam used to make more potable water, grow more food, support plasma gasification/FT process to convert trash into usable products, heat/cool buildings and many other industrial processes.
This will allow LOCAL control, control by members, not the parasites/bureaucrats, labor unions, politicians. If people want to raise their cost of electricity to support parasites they can do that.
(if you want me to hammer you for being stupid, tell us how Molten Salt/Sodium cooled reactors generate waste and can have a melt-down and how renewables are better)
I am pro-nuclear. I don't think you can hammer me about that subject.
However, I don't speculate about very new types of energy on the grid. Whether it's fossil with carbon capture, new types of nuclear, or fusion, I always say "show me" before I recommend it.
Nuclear has already been tried, proven and successful for decades. I'm not sure we even need new innovations - just go with what we know works.
Bio: William E. Fortune
William Fortune, president of Industrial Consultants Inc, worked for 16 years as facilities engineer for the Department of Defense (Navy) concerning the overhaul and repair of nuclear submarines. As facilities engineer, he was responsible for the design, construction & contract specifications for purchase of many various pieces of equipment, systems and facilities that were used by the shipyard to overhaul submarines. Systems included electrical power distribution (Submarine power-440 Volts ) up to 800 amps, controls using programmable logic controllers, 600 psi steam, chilled water, 4500 psi hydraulics , 6000 psi ultra dry air compressors, oil and refrigerants reprocessing, chemical cleaning facilities, sandblasting and painting systems. Mr. Fortune introduced the idea of using a storage/retrieval stacker cranes for Naval Shipyards and specified the one built in the Machine Shop, Bldg. 300 at the PNSY.
He was also project engineer for the more technical parts of the design and construction of the Navy’s largest and most advanced machine shop east of the Mississippi. One of the major accomplishments was the design of the machine shop’s pump test facility. The test facility allowed the Navy to test all hydraulic, lube oil and water pumps that are used on nuclear submarines that can be overhauled at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. When the construction contractor had difficulty building parts of the project Mr. Fortune quit the Shipyard & became the Contractor’s Quality Control (CQC) Inspector and also contracted to build parts of the facilities. As CQC he was involved in the quality control for the construction of such items as concrete structures, cranes, pipe welding, sewer systems, steel construction, control systems, and the entire test facilities that are used in the testing of various submarine components.
Pryor to becoming a full time DoD employee, Mr. Fortune worked one summer vacation as a Circle T test director at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. His duties included directing the operational/certification testing of the Emergency Diesel Generator & the Feedwater Pumps & System for a submarine.
While still employed by the Shipyard, Fortune was asked to spend several weeks at Subic Bay Navy Base specifying test equipment for the testing of submarine systems under the Sub-safe program. During his time at Subic Bay he discovered that several workers were not doing their job testing the ship’s systems. On the last day of duty, at a meeting with the Base Commander, Mr. Fortune said that the Ship’s Skipper & Base Commander needed to order all members of the Test Group to be on board during sea trials. The ship completed Sea Trials successfully.
Some other highlights while at the Shipyard: Built, with the help of Maintenance mechanics, an oil reclaiming facility using abandoned equipment. The oil was returned to “new” specifications after it was used to flush dirt & water out of ships hydraulic systems.
Another facility from abandoned equipment was automated to process/reclaim trichlorotrifluoroethane (used as another flushing/cleaning fluid). The cleaned fluid was pumped into a specially designed semitrailer/tanker that could be taken to the ship & the dirty fluid returned to the other ½ of the tanker instead of using 55 gallon steel drums.
Mr. Fortune uncovered fraud during an inspection of those 6000 psi, Ultra-dry air compressors mentioned above. The manufacturer used some components that were rated for only 3000 psi. & tried to show evidence that the manufacture of those components had certified them for 6000 psi, which they had not. He claimed that other Shipyards accepted his equipment & had connections “high up”. I said “you are dealing with Portsmouth Naval Shipyard now”. The Navy inspectors in Virginia requested that PNSY accept the compressors & “fix” them. I told them that they would not be allowed in the Shipyard & they were to default the vender & I was “going up the Chain of Command” all the way to the President of the U.S. if necessary. I soon got a call from some Department Head saying the “buck stops here”, the vender will be defaulted & ordered to pay back all Progress Payments, which he did and he went out of business.
I loved my job for the Navy. But I was a threat to “higher ups” so they wouldn’t promote me, so I quit & became a contractor (CQC mentioned above). A new Department Head was so scared he called the Shipyard to see where I was, because he had bad dreams about me & thought I was on the same airplane with him (I was Chief Union Steward & in his department). All the pastries his wife made to bribe the Navy Brass over the years didn’t help. He was caught “spilling the beans about a Union dispute” to some media people, which got him terminated. He was the first, but not the last. During a system flush of the newly constructed hydraulics test system in the new Machine Shop (mentioned above) someone smelled ammonia that we were using. The Fire Dept arrived, followed by dozens of other people including the Shop Head & Fire Chief. I told the Chief that “this area is under Contractor control & I’m the Safety Officer & “I’m ordering you to remove all those people that don’t have SCBA to leave the area, including yourself”. The Shop Head got me kicked off the Yard for a month, but when they had to shut down the job because no other engineer could be found to replace me, I returned. The Shop Head was furious, because I could park my car below his office in the Security Area (no private cars allowed, usually) & had air conditioning in my portable office. They said he pounded his fists on the table at the Shipyard Commanders Office trying to get me removed again. Two-3 years after the Machine Shop was finished there was a huge oil spill. The workers had pushed oil & water from the Oil Pump Test Area into the Fire Sprinkler Water collection tank, instead of the Oil/Water Collection Tank, a system I designed. The Shop Head said “Fortune did it”. An investigation showed that I was long gone from the Shipyard for some time & it was his fault. He immediately got transferred to another Yard.
In the mid 1970’s Mr. Fortune built a house at 10 Rollingwood, Eliot, Maine, doing all the plumbing, well pump/water system, electrical, heating system, sewer system, concrete basement floor & finish work.
Industrial Consultants Inc was formed in 1984 for the primary purpose of doing design/build construction projects; many were done for the Department of Defense. From underground utilities and railroad tracks to high voltage power distribution systems (up to 5000 volts) there were many and various project in between.
In 2000 W. Fortune & Co was established to do design/build geothermal heat pump systems and other oil and gas fired HVAC systems. In 2012 NH Clean Energy was formed with other engineers to design a facility that would take landfill materials, gasify them, and convert them to synthetic products such as paraffin & synthetic F-T Diesel. The plant would also produce about 35 MW's of electricity and enough steam to heat the city of Concord, NH/replace Concord Steam.
Other: Founder of Fathers United For Equal Justice (NH, 1971); 2 yr. term, Chairman, ASME, Northern Chapter; Chief Steward, International Federation of Professional & Technical Engineers (IFPTE), Local 4 (while DoD employee at the Shipyard). Conducted approx. 15 court cases including one Jury Trial, wining about 90 % of them.
William Eaton Fortune, Lee, NH 603 365 0251 indust.consult@rcn.com.
Nuclear reactors (solid fuel, very high pressure, 3 % fuel efficient, water cooled) were never designed to be used by civilians on land ! They were designed to be used by the US Navy in a submarine.
The first Molten Salt reactor was designed by Oak Ridge Nat. Lab, headed by Alvin Weinberg. It took them only 3 YEARS ! They PROVED the technology by operationally testing it until Democrats from California defunded the project so the money would go to CA. Alvil testified before another moron in Congress from CA that the nuclear reactors they designed for the Navy were unsafe ! The moron got Alvin fired.
Another reason we have nuclear reactors is because the NRC wanted to spend their entire life "studying". (Congress recently made law that says they only have a few months and can't charge billions of $$$).
THERE IS NO SPECULATION ! Again, the Sodium/Liquid Metal cooled reactors have been operational for a combined 74 YEARS.
The fact that ppl in the US are still believing Helen Caldicott, a school teacher, that wind and solar are the answer, shows just how brain dead people are !
I know about Weinberg and the success of the molten salt reactor at Oak Ridge. I still consider them speculative because they have not been put into service making electricity. At least, not in this country. They are used in Russia.
I think they are great and very promising.
Wow. Just wow.
Thermal boilers of all kinds provide the motive power for the generators. The boiler doesn't produce the electricity.
I'm beginning to wonder about you, frankly.
Yes, nuclear is the answer. But it takes so long to get them built, because of all the regulations and permitting obstacles, that there will be a lot of pain and suffering and economic slowdown before the solution is realized and built out. Sad...
"NUCLEAR" was NEVER the answer ! read the history/my comments above ! Only fools build Nuclear reactors, mostly because no one ever had enough money to "pay off" the bureaucrats at the NRC.
This doesn't work in a de-regulated power market like PJM, would need above market PPAs to get these built (not to mention need to get lenders comfortable with the design, an unlikely scenario). Integrated utilities could do it if there is political will, but after the Vogtle bondoogle that is unlikely. You need a federal impetus.
U comments shows U have no clue !!! BTW, I said we need another Co-op, like the one we have in NH. Congress just gave the "impetus", but still can't have Gen IV because there are way too many parasites making everything too expensive. China likely the Worlds leader in energy & the next Superpower !
I’m not saying it’s not a good idea, I’m saying it’s not currently economical
The economics of nuclear power plants look a lot better if we look at the long run, like the possibility of 100 yrs of reliable lifetime with relatively low maintenance and low fuel cost. Coal and gas are cheaper, but nuclear plants are emission free, which should make it possible for bi-partisan support.
It's only "not economical" in the US and other Western Nations, because of the lawyers, labor unions, bureaucrats and millions of other parasites that want all the money. Many have misled the public by saying that Molten Salt reactors are Nuclear that can have a melt-down, can explode, produce lots of waste, produce bomb making materials. They mislead people because they want to keep getting $$$ for "research". According to Yale, the only solution is fusion; they need to keep the "free" money flowing for their "research".
Great analysis, Meredith!
Thank you for the note!
Wonderful summary for all. You have put it into words, for the first time in my searching to understand this type of thing even remotely, that I can understand. Bravo!
Thank you!
A couple of things to keep in mind about this latest PJM auction. One is that PJM allows states(or more particularly individual load serving entities) to opt out of there capacity auction process. Typically this process has been used by those states/utilities in PJM that remained vertically integrated and fully regulated. So AEP in West Virginia, Indiana, and Michigan or Dominion in Virginia and North Carolina for example. In this last auction however Dominion has not been able to build enough generation to meet it's fully bundled load due to demand growth in it's territory and thus has had to "opt in" to the capacity market. I believe this decision is a multi-year one as well under the rules and thus Dominion will be participating in the next PJM auction come this December(the PJM auction process has been heavily delayed due to various litigation at FERC and thus is basically way behind schedule).
So what does this all mean? Well I have been trying to convince folks in other parts of PJM that have large amounts of generation compared to local load(think Northern Illinois with all of it's nuclear plants) that perhaps they should consider using this same opt out provision with little interest to date(although some Illinois state legislators in the past have been interested in leaving the capacity markets) perhaps however, this huge increase in capacity prices across PJM including Illinois(which has plenty of capacity locally) will change people's minds. One challenge is because ComEd is no longer a vertically integrated utility it would have to sign bilateral agreements with all of key generators in it's service area(most of the nuclear ones in particular are owned by ComEd former sister company Constellation Energy) however, this system was already put in place once between 1997 and 2005 after deregulation was imposed in Illinois(1997) and the state and ComEd joining PJM in 2005.
In the short term Illinois will be okay because some of the nuclear plants(Dresden, Byron, and Braidwood) have cost sharing provisions as part of the agreement to keep the plants open back in 2022 that rebate back to Illinois ratepayers any market revenues over a certain amount. However, this agreement under the CEJA law doesn't last forever and doesn't cover LaSalle(the most profitable nuclear plant in Illinois) and doesn't cover Quad Cities in the same way either. So Illinois ratepayers at the end of the day will still end up paying more just perhaps not as much more as others in PJM.
I think I had the litigation in my post. Interesting about Dominion. Thanks!
I don’t think these two Bloomberg headlines are a coincidence. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-10/why-germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end. And https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/germany-s-solar-power-generation-surges-to-a-fresh-record
Absolutely related. 🙁
I'm thrilled to live in the BGE zone. Our glorious messianic governor announced several billion of state funds will go towards the green mirage through 2027 including building a new transmission grid across the far northern part of the state to carry planned wind farms' output. Since our state is run by luddite Dems, it's business as usual - claim an enemy is at our door, posit utopian ideas to address it, spend $$$, and pretend the unintended (but obvious) consequences were always expected.
It seems to me that the non-engineer bureaucrats in charge of the system simply don't appreciate that electricity isn't a commodity, rather a service. In other words, one cannot put a price on a kWh of energy nor a kW of power. Rather it's a matter of establishing a value for each kWh and each kW. Capacity payments is an imperfect means of pricing a dispatchable kW as most certainly is attempting to put a stable market price on a kWh. All of the complexities in the current market system can be placed at the feet of treating electricity as a commodity.
It seems to me that there must be a recognition that dispatchability requires a higher value; that the short-term market treatment of a kWh needs to be supplanted by a longer-term market mechanism which values low incremental kWh production cost and accepting a higher cost of the infrastructure required to deliver those kWhs. Perhaps jurisdictions could start by allowing auctions which promise delivery of an pre-established number of kWhs in, for example, a week, rather than the current 15 minute auction price? Would something like that reduce the helter-skelter nature of current electricity energy markets?
I agree with you.
Supposedly, the capacity market decreases the helter-skelter nature of the energy markets.
And yes, electricity is not a commodity and should not be priced as a commodity.
I think it’s important for lawmakers, Wholesale market rulemakers, regulators, and the interested public to understand the cost of capacity relative to the cost of energy on the grid.
One of the obstacles to doing so is that people tend to assume that price is somehow a reflection of cost. Unfortunately that is untrue. Another obstacle is using different metrics for capacity. (MW-days) than for energy (MWHs).
As a ratepayer advocate and independent economics enthusiast, I have a somewhat unique perspective on this matter. I believe one fair way to approach the issue is to take the view that levelized fixed costs are capacity costs, and levelized variable costs are energy costs. The DOE EIA Has been projecting costs in these categories in their AEO For more than 15 years. One thing these reports show accurately (but fail to state explicitly) is that levelized fixed costs vary with capacity factor, while levelized variable costs do not. And regional transmission organization, annual state of the market reports show that energy is overpaid and capacity underpaid relative to these cost categories.
Enough said for now… Reach me at 937-407-6258 or TFstacy@gmail.com